Dancing With The Stars

[3DGlasses]

Watched last night's show for the first time....

my thoughts...

Jerry Springer is the worst of the men. (got the lowest score for guys)

Sara Evans is the worst of the women. (got the lowest score for gals)

At least Jerry is funny and entertainning... Evans is dull and boring.


Wagering--

Pinny: Women celebrity gets eliminated: -300 (BIG - to cover my ass)

Bet365: Sara Evans to be eliminated: +650 (average -- like the price)

 

[3DGlasses]

Oops, sorry for the double post.

 

[trytrytry]

totally agree on those but get a better prices on each! much better out there

 

[llabb]

Hi try and 3d, agree with you guys.

Try: Where else can you bet on tonight's elimination?

 

[3DGlasses]

totally agree on those but get a better prices on each! much better out there

+650 for Sara Evans is the best I could find. In fact, I can't find any other elimination odds anywhere.

.....still a great price!

 

[llabb]

Female to go home looks like a great wager to me.

Last week, both Shanna and Willa were in the bottom 3, despite having higher scores than others. This week, Willa had the lame, forgettable 1st spot, and Shanna was in the middle, with an uninspiring performance.

Neither have much of a fanbase, and lots of people don't even know who they are. If you are a good dancer with a good personality, you can add a fanbase as the show goes on. But this is only the 2nd week, so you need to have some prior awareness. Shanna and Willa don't. Anything can happen, but even on TV forums, most fans also think Shanna or Willa will leave.

I'd handicap the % of likelihood to go home as Shanna 40%, Willa 40%, low male contestants (Jerry and Harry) 15%, and the field 5%. This means the odds on a female to be eliminated should be worse than -500. I would be willing to bet it up to -400, which gives some room for error.

And in the low 300's/high 200's, it's a very good line to bet on a female going home.


Summary: Bet on a female to be eliminated tonight, on Pinny at -270. Willing to bet up to -400.

 

[HEAVYCHALK]

winnah :toast:

 

[llabb]

Congrats to all, this was an easy winner! It's great to see the results conforming to my expectations. Called the Shanna/Willa Bottom 2 perfectly. Look forward to talking about this next week here, with more discussion hopefully.